Correct Rating is a Rare Thing

16.05.2013 /   Andrejic, Vladica (2212)

It is beyond belief how FIDE seems intent on reiterating its incapability to publish official rating lists with properly calculated data; worse still, no-one there is even remotely willing to admit the problem, let alone the extent thereof.

In my article "Rogulj's Blitzkrieg: A Long-lasting April Fool's Joke or a New Rating FIDE-ology?" I have publicly criticized the work of FIDE. This article was later reprinted with my permission by a popular chess website ChessVibes on April 15, 2013. However, it was withdrawn after two hours, because the site's owner felt the article needed a comment from FIDE (which they never gave). The moral of this (short) story is that FIDE is well-aware of the problem that I'm about to discuss in more detail.

If FIDE were a serious organization, it would've published on its official website that the rating lists were not valid and that they'd been working day and night to fix the problem. Instead, we had been treated to an epic saga of our beloved President. The main news on the FIDE website for that period (April 15-17, 2013) were the following: The President thanks for the warm and kind words of congratulation on the occasion of his birthday, The President arrived to Baku, Azerbaijan, The President made a short visit to Stavropol, Russia, The President expresses condolences on Boston tragedy.

From March 31st (when the April list was published) to April 30th, when the first corrections were made, Croatian International Master Branko Rogulj had been sitting atop the official FIDE Blitz Rating List (ahead of Karjakin), with a staggering Elo of 2920. It took FIDE a month do to something, but let's take a look at the actual results.

Could it be that someone at FIDE actually decided to follow up on my report of the "The Rogulj's Blitzkrieg", where I mentioned that the Croatian Chess Federation had submitted 4 Zagreb blitz tournaments played in January 2013, which meant that they were rated with a 2-month delay. In such cases a big problem of the rating lag is bound to arise, which I have already covered in my previous article "How to prevent rating lag?", but these irregularities are not the reason behind Rogulj's blitzkrieg 2920, or Mrdja's 2811 Elo.

In a rather sloppy attempt to cover up the mess and apply a quick fix, FIDE pushed back the delayed tournaments to their actual rating periods, and then retroactively rated all of them from the beginning. The rating lists were thus retroactively falsified, which is not too difficult to spot if you just compare players' ratings from their FIDE player dossiers with the corresponding data from rating lists published before April 30, 2013 on the official FIDE download page. This means that the now famous 130 Rogulj's games (he should actually have lost 77 points for his performance, but he miraculously ended up earning a jackpot of mind-boggling 499 Elo points instead!) originally rated for April 2013, were this time splitted into February, March and April. Under these new conditions, Rogulj first leaped from 2469 in January to 2605 in February 2013 (he had smaller bonuses), then dropped back to 2523 in March, and finally landed at 2440 in April 2013. During the last day of April FIDE rated the tournaments for May 2013, so Rogulj again got a turbo-boost, and eventually re-emerged at 2631 with a new mystery bonus.

These somersaults probably made everyone in FIDE quite happy, because "their problem" was "successfully" solved: no players were above the magic plateau of 2900 any longer... Well, call me inFIDEl (that's French for party-pooper), but the problem still remains because the overflow error in FIDE programs has not been removed at all! Let's just examine the state of the affairs for May 1, 2013.

The above mentioned FIDE software has a bug that keeps failing to properly add the total change of rating points from the processed rating period to the old rating. This problem does not exist for the Standard rating lists (good old Elo for classical chess): I checked all this year's lists, but perhaps the answer is simple enough - the development coefficient is always K=20 for shorter time rates, yet never assumes that value for any Standard FIDE list calculations. It so appears that this bug is quite selective in its nature: it exists exclusively on FIDE Blitz and Rapid rating lists. There is another interesting phenomenon: there is no evidence of any bug if a player has less than 35 games in any given rating period; I suggest that your curb your enthusiasm: prolific players with more than 35 games in any rating period tend to be bitten by the bug almost every single time!!

I double-checked this for every single 2013 rating list, and I'm offering here my calculations for all players with 36+ games in a rating period, which means that you'll be treated (if you have the stomach for it) to all FIDE summation errors. For more than 150 instances, there are only four (4) correctly calculated results, which means that if a player has more than 35 blitz or rapid games belonging to a single rating period, the calculations will be wrong in over 97% of the cases! All things considered, one can freely conclude that ALL FIDE Blitz and Rapid rating lists are terribly wrong. Without fixing them, all the rest is just FIDE-ling to the flames... Enjoy the following tables if you can...

FIDE-ID   Tit RAPID - MAY 2013         Fed   Apr13 Chg   May13 Gms   Error
4162870       Tarasov, Oleg            RUS   2290  +48   2323  36    -15  

FIDE-ID   Tit RAPID - JANUARY 2013     Fed   Mar13 Chg   Apr13 Gms   Error
4143183   GM  Papin, Vasily            RUS   2557  +36   2577  40    -16  

FIDE-ID   Tit BLITZ - MAY 2013         Fed   Apr13 Chg   May13 Gms   Error
14503468  FM  Bender, Ivan             CRO   2196  +14   2208  49    -2   
14509040      Brajkovic, Zeljko        CRO   1990  +16   2031  46    +25  
14500094  GM  Cebalo, Miso             CRO   2381  +83   2453  37    -11  
4206975       Dimitriou, G.            GRE   2159  +27   2176  45    -10  
14509938  IM  Djurovic, Goran          CRO   2473  -14   2480  48    +21  
4121996   IM  Dvalishvili, Pavel S.    RUS   2575  -26   2519  39    -30  
14500426  IM  Hresc, Vladimir          CRO   2464  -109  2382  50    +27  
14507714      Hrupacki, Milan          CRO   2274  -32   2241  48    -1   
909831        Jeknic, Velimir          MNE   2046  +78   2082  53    -42  
14500604      Jurkovic, Ante           CRO   2310  -77   2269  60    +36  
4503651       Kaldjarv, Ergo           EST   1115  +28   1179  39    +36  
4500806       Kolk, Marek              EST   2209  +102  2289  39    -22  
14501295  FM  Kristovic, Marijan       CRO   2223  +365  2561  61    -27  
14514184      Kristovic, Robert        CRO   2086  -34   2071  37    +19  
34136239      Krivosheev, O.v.         RUS   2029  -73   1975  44    +19  
4501675       Kuusk, Andres            EST   2123  +6    2114  39    -15  
14527456      Livaic, Damir            CRO   2093  -54   2064  59    +25  
14531534      Livaic, Leon             CRO   1956  +246  2151  59    -51  
4504704       Lott, Toomas             EST   2345  -112  2292  54    +59  
14502810      Mravunac, Damir          CRO   2349  -136  2257  60    +44  
14500337  IM  Mrdja, Milan             CRO   2456  +9    2491  50    +26  
4501934       Muru, Moorits Mihkel     EST   1911  +137  2056  40    +8   
4502477       Narusberg, Peep          EST   1901  +55   1973  39    +17  
34107913      Nogaev, Gennadiy         RUS   1775  -57   1713  38    -5   
14518210      Novakovic, Ivan          CRO   1990  +60   2068  45    +18  
4503783       Okas, Andrus             EST   1794  -7    1821  54    +34  
4504755       Parts, Tiit              EST   1740  -95   1661  44    +16  
4503805       Peebo, Kalle             EST   2246  -58   2231  54    +43  
14531054      Prodanovic, Bogdan       CRO   1983  -77   1916  36    +10  
4504585       Rei, Aksel               EST   2101  +24   2114  39    -11  
14500213  IM  Rogulj, Branko           CRO   2440  +127  2631  63    +64  
14501058  FM  Rosandic, Denis          CRO   2259  +26   2283  48    -2   
4192036   FM  Seliverstov, Vladimir    RUS   2547  +64   2607  40    -4   
4503961       Solovjov, Vladimir       EST   1834  -54   1807  40    +27  
4151070       Tagirov, Kajum K         RUS   1912  +20   1949  46    +17  
24149829      Tyukhanov, Alexey        RUS   2304  -40   2252  41    -12  
4116658   IM  Ulko, Jaroslav           RUS   2444  +69   2509  42    -4   
4502620       Viikmaa, Karmen          EST   1937  +5    1955  40    +13  
932620        Vujacic, Igor            MNE   2101  -35   2087  45    +21  
14500361  IM  Vujakovic, Branko        CRO   2372  -123  2221  36    -28  
901580    IM  Vujosevic, Vladimir      MNE   2251  +50   2291  37    -10  
14501007      Zecevic, Dean            CRO   2505  -249  2265  45    +9   

FIDE-ID   Tit BLITZ - APRIL 2013       Fed   Mar13 Chg   Apr13 Gms   Error
14503468  FM  Bender, Ivan             CRO   2282  -114  2196  65    +28  
917796        Borozan, Nikola          MNE   2122  +72   2194  38     0   
14509040      Brajkovic, Zeljko        CRO   2021  -68   1990  55    +37  
936731        Dedic, Slavko            MNE   1848  +20   1891  42    +23  
903930        Djokovic, Mirsad         MNE   2138  -29   2116  51    +7   
920304    FM  Djukanovic, Sreten       MNE   2345  -8    2299  36    -38  
12807397      Feofanov, Boris          LTU   1706  -57   1664  44    +15  
14138190      Grytsynyak, Yosyp        UKR   2157  -104  2043  41    -10  
24164852      Gurvich, Vitaly          RUS   2062  +119  2188  40    +7   
14500426  IM  Hresc, Vladimir          CRO   2358  +99   2464  41    +7   
14507714      Hrupacki, Milan          CRO   2210  +67   2274  45    -3   
14500604      Jurkovic, Ante           CRO   2289  -27   2310  65    +48  
14506378      Kalajzic, Ivan           CRO   2197  +183  2375  42    -5   
14505061      Kalanj, Mirko            CRO   1854  +20   1879  49    +5   
14602334  WGM Kaps, Darja              SLO   2253  -51   2179  38    -23  
4502663       Kasela, Sten             EST   2317  -31   2282  45    -4   
24198161      Kashpur, Mark            RUS   1624  +176  1883  36    +83  
4500806       Kolk, Marek              EST   2139  +18   2209  55    +52  
14540363      Kosovic, Miroslav        CRO   2162  +11   2159  51    -14  
14501295  FM  Kristovic, Marijan       CRO   2292  -72   2223  45    +3   
4501675       Kuusk, Andres            EST   2008  +98   2123  55    +17  
4504704       Lott, Toomas             EST   2184  +116  2345  55    +45  
12810444      Matulaitis, Vidmantas    LTU   1542  +66   1643  44    +35  
34122459      Mezhlumian, Rafik        RUS   1928  +116  2045  42    +1   
14502810      Mravunac, Damir          CRO   2314  -5    2349  65    +40  
14500337  IM  Mrdja, Milan             CRO   2426  +17   2456  39    +13  
14903806      Munk, Lubomir            SVK   1906  -61   1856  42    +11  
4501934       Muru, Moorits Mihkel     EST   2039  -148  1911  55    +20  
4502477       Narusberg, Peep          EST   1837  +36   1901  54    +28  
14518210      Novakovic, Ivan          CRO   2002  -36   1990  56    +24  
4503783       Okas, Andrus             EST   1756  +9    1794  55    +29  
14904616      Oprea, Erik              SVK   2164  -73   2092  44    +1   
4504755       Parts, Tiit              EST   1847  -109  1740  43    +2   
12807346      Paulauskas, Andrius      LTU   1934  +56   1986  44    -4   
14900114  IM  Petran, Peter            SVK   2265  +61   2352  47    +26  
14901340      Privara, Igor            SVK   2163  +31   2221  46    +27  
14531054      Prodanovic, Bogdan       CRO   1933  +45   1983  49    +5   
14500213  IM  Rogulj, Branko           CRO   2523  -93   2440  45    +10  
14900386  FM  Ruckschloss, Karol       SVK   2248  +66   2331  45    +17  
1019481   WIM Schut, Lisa              NED   2289  -28   2265  41    +4   
4192036   FM  Seliverstov, Vladimir    RUS   2596  -89   2547  51    +40  
12801054      Sevrukas, Gediminas      LTU   1884  -76   1845  44    +37  
14911418      Sosovicka, Juraj         SVK   2136  +51   2171  45    -16  
4106717       Tsarev, Valery           RUS   2217  -33   2195  48    +11  
12806951      Vaitkevicius, Paulius    LTU   1820  +135  1932  39    -23  
4502620       Viikmaa, Karmen          EST   1906  +22   1937  40    +9   
932620        Vujacic, Igor            MNE   2158  -56   2101  40    -1   
4198760       Zavialov, Vladimir       RUS   2069  -53   2025  41    +9   
14501007      Zecevic, Dean            CRO   2293  +184  2505  56    +28  

FIDE-ID   Tit BLITZ - MARCH 2013       Fed   Feb13 Chg   Mar13 Gms   Error
4268130       Androutsopoulos-AgiotatosGRE   1848  +89   1932  44    -5   
24131792  FM  Apryshko, Gleb           RUS   2417  +37   2451  43    -3   
14900254  FM  Certek, Pavel            SVK   2300  +25   2335  43    +10  
4178157       Chizhikov, Vladislav     RUS   2337  -57   2277  40    -3   
24131563      Denishev, Marat          RUS   2273  +47   2319  40    -1   
4297644       Dimakopoulos, KonstantinoGRE   1472  -8    1474  40    +10  
25801600      Fotou, Theokritos        GRE   1647  +25   1672  44     0   
14907232      Hricak, Vasil            SVK   2130  -91   2039  41     0   
4265297       Kakoulidis, Vasilios     GRE   1479  -104  1374  38    -1   
4503651       Kaldjarv, Ergo           EST   1287  -56   1119  47    -112 
4271181       Kalyva, Kyriaki          GRE   1469  +34   1504  41    +1   
4502663       Kasela, Sten             EST   2280  +31   2317  47    +6   
4501675       Kuusk, Andres            EST   2082  -68   2008  47    -6   
25803387      Malataras, Georgios      GRE   1106  +21   1166  37    +39  
14118734  IM  Mischuk, Dmitry          UKR   2332  +126  2448  40    -10  
14903806      Munk, Lubomir            SVK   1883  -0    1906  40    +23  
4501934       Muru, Moorits Mihkel     EST   1928  +111  2039  40     0   
4503783       Okas, Andrus             EST   1782  -62   1756  47    +36  
14904616      Oprea, Erik              SVK   2152  +22   2164  42    -10  
4503805       Peebo, Kalle             EST   2170  +51   2228  47    +7   
14900114  IM  Petran, Peter            SVK   2279  -16   2265  40    +2   
14913518      Prikler, Bruno           SVK   2061  +52   2108  44    -5   
4297911       Stefanopoulos, Andreas   GRE   1079  -13   1095  37    +29  
4151070       Tagirov, Kajum K         RUS   1891  +23   1937  36    +23  
4274300       Triantos, Konstantinos   GRE   1623  +181  1806  44    +2   
4106717       Tsarev, Valery           RUS   2270  -51   2217  40    -2   
4502620       Viikmaa, Karmen          EST   1909  -16   1906  47    +13  
25802259      Zaronikas, Dimitrios     GRE   1275  -15   1287  39    +27  

FIDE-ID   Tit BLITZ - FEBRUARY 2013    Fed   Feb13 Chg   Mar13 Gms   Error
14507927  GM  Bosiocic, Marin          CRO   2682  -54   2613  41    -15  
4265297       Kakoulidis, Vasilios     GRE   1502  -16   1479  39    -7   
4503651       Kaldjarv, Ergo           EST   1441  -47   1287  36    -107 
4271181       Kalyva, Kyriaki          GRE   1552  -75   1469  39    -8   
14501155  IM  Lovric, Branko           CRO   2380  +4    2378  43    -6   
4501934       Muru, Moorits Mihkel     EST   2006  -63   1928  36    -15  
4502477       Narusberg, Peep          EST   1877  +61   1948  36    +10  
4503783       Okas, Andrus             EST   1861  -81   1782  36    +2   
4504585       Rei, Aksel               EST   2063  +45   2087  36    -21  
25802259      Zaronikas, Dimitrios     GRE   1198  +38   1275  38    +39  

FIDE-ID   Tit BLITZ - JANUARY 2013     Fed   Mar13 Chg   Apr13 Gms   Error
14512130      Basaric, Srdjan          CRO   2056  +101  2161  43    +4   
14503468  FM  Bender, Ivan             CRO   2148  -29   2186  75    +67  
13505491      Berlin, Dmitriy          BLR   1965  +73   2046  37    +8   
4117301   GM  Cherniaev, Alexander     RUS   2406  +40   2401  36    -45  
14507714      Hrupacki, Milan          CRO   2176  +71   2246  46    -1   
14500604      Jurkovic, Ante           CRO   2475  -218  2308  57    +51  
4503651       Kaldjarv, Ergo           EST   1611  -73   1441  42    -97  
4502663       Kasela, Sten             EST   2154  +45   2220  43    +21  
4500806       Kolk, Marek              EST   2172  +59   2244  44    +13  
14540363      Kosovic, Miroslav        CRO   2126  -24   2104  45    +2   
14501295  FM  Kristovic, Marijan       CRO   2323  -84   2213  37    -26  
14514184      Kristovic, Robert        CRO   1969  +87   2077  38    +21  
4502051       Kuusk, Indrek            EST   2057  +116  2203  43    +30  
14502810      Mravunac, Damir          CRO   2322  -56   2259  45    -7   
4502477       Narusberg, Peep          EST   1875  -35   1877  42    +37  
14518210      Novakovic, Ivan          CRO   2005  -40   1977  50    +12  
4503783       Okas, Andrus             EST   1955  -87   1861  42    -7   
4503805       Peebo, Kalle             EST   2118  +16   2146  44    +12  
14542951      Simicevic, Petar         CRO   2005  -40   2014  42    +49  
4503961       Solovjov, Vladimir       EST   1794  +39   1857  42    +24